As detailed on this site, in 2013, Clayton Christensen and I made a bold prediction in the New York Times: “a host of struggling colleges and universities—the bottom 25 percent… will disappear or merge in the next 10 to 15 years.” Christensen would sometimes make bigger claims in speeches and suggest that a half of colleges and universities could close, merge, or go bankrupt, even as the 25 percent number remained the baseline of our prediction.

Many in the higher education establishment and media scoffed at the prediction. In 2018, I amended the prediction to suggest that we were directionally correct, but the prediction would probably play out over 20 years, not 15. And it likely should not only include college consolidation, but also significant restructurings.

So roughly a decade in and still before the demographic decline hits colleges—particularly those in the Northeast and Midwest—how is the prediction holding up?