Every few years it seems that hype grows around the possibilities of unbundling education. The latest fuel is the emergence of at least 14 states with education savings accounts (ESA) programs that allow families to pay for a variety of educational programs and supports from public funds.

As a recent article in Education Next, where I’m an executive editor, proclaimed, “While parent-led unbundling is not a new phenomenon, the current movement has expanded so quickly that it’s been dubbed ‘the Great Unbundling’ of K–12 schooling.”

But we should be cautious about such grand statements. Good theory on innovation can help us parse out the hype from what’s likely to play out.